The Tiger Tamed

The tiger tamed
Nov 20th 2008

From the Economist Intelligence Unit
Ireland's economy faces three years of declining output

The Irish economy is already in a deep recession and it now appears almost certain that activity will continue to contract over the next two years. Unemployment is rising sharply and is forecast to increase even more rapidly in the early months of 2009. The severe downturn is mainly attributable to declining domestic demand, led by a collapse in construction activity and falling consumer spending, but is being compounded by the unprecedented developments in international financial markets. The two-party coalition government is also grappling with a self-inflicted fiscal crisis, and evidence to date does not suggest that it is rising to the challenge either politically or from a policy-making perspective.

All in the numbers
Ireland's economy is moving more deeply into recession, and recent data point to a widening of the slump. Retail sales figures have shown a deteriorating trend since the start of 2008, with sales volumes declining by 0.2% in the first quarter, by 4.5% in the second and by 5.7% in the third—data for August and September were the weakest in 25 years. Unsurprisingly, housing-related retail subsectors have been worst hit. In the year to August, sales volumes in the furniture and lighting category were down by 20%, while those of hardware, paint and glass were down by 14.2%. The most recent month for which comparable EU-wide retail sales data are available is July, when Ireland's decline of 5% compared with an average fall of 0.5% across the EU and of 1.8% across the euro area.

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Dublin in black and white
Nov 24th 2008

From Economist.com
The new Irish and the old

BELGIUM is not the first thing that comes to mind when you mention Brussels on Dublin’s streets. “I haven’t got any love,” Annie, a trader, tells me, thinking I was looking for the edible kind. Trade’s bad on Moore Street’s markets, and many traders blame foreigners. Recent polls show that over 66% of adults in Ireland favour more restrictive immigration policies, and the recent rejection of the Lisbon Treaty testifies to rising resentment of the European Union.

The Moore Street Market, a national treasure of traditional Irish fare and straight-talking “true Dubs”, with its carpet of wet cabbage leaves and even a horse-drawn cart if you’re lucky, is the first port of call for the uncensored version of why some are changing their minds about immigration. How’s business, I ask Colin, another trader. “Ah sure, look at them, they’re all going in there,” he sneers as he points an accusatory finger at a shiny white complex. When he turns to serve a customer and I totter down to the mall to see what all the fuss is about.

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